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Last Men And OverMen

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Those Already Dancing on Hillary’s Grave Might Just Want to Hold Off

As usual, the expectations for Hillary as the first woman to be a major party nominee are just absurd. She’s never allowed to miss dotting a single ‘i’ or crossing a single ‘t’ or the media starts talking in terms that would make you think it’s Watergate or something.

Ignoring that with a Trump Presidency it would be Watergate on steroids every single day.

Hillary has led this race basically wire to wire. A few times it’s been tied or close to it. But if you were to average the polls over the entire election so far, she has been up by about 5 points on average.

This is about twice the average lead of Obama in 2012 and it’s even above his average lead in 2008. And even if the race tightened she is ahead of where Obama was even now in either year.

“This story gets written every four years.”

” On 9/18/12, Romney was +1.5 in RCP avg.”
” On 9/18/2008, McCain was +4.5.”

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/777652501248180224

But as Hillary always gets a much tougher standard she has to lead by 10 points in every single poll or the Hillary haters get to come out of the woodwork and declare: ‘Aha! I warned you she is a bad candidate.’

A bad candidate. My answer to this is always-compared to what? Compared to who? Generic Democrat doesn’t exist. The media says nice things about Biden now because he’s: not running.

You’re always more popular when you’re not running than when you’re running. Hillary was at 64% favorability when she was Obama’s’ Secretary of State.

As for Republicans throwing shade about how ‘bad a candidate’ Hillary is, they are the last ones with any room to talk. She has certainly done expotentially better than their allegedly good candidates: Jeb/Marco/Kasich.

So she’s ahead of Obama’s pace in both years that he went onto win handily, and is blowing out the GOP candidates vs. Trump in the primary. But she’s the bad candidate. Not Jeb who got beat by Trump 41-3. Not Scott Walker who flamed out. Not Little Marco-sorry but that name really fits him going by character-who lost to Trump by almost 20 points in his own state.

Now I actually started arguing over the weekend that Trump-may have-peaked.

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/09/more-polls-suggest-tightening-may-be.html

I agree with my Twitter friend, The Skeptic:

“I’m thinking he reached his high watermark during that post Labor Day period but we can’t take anything for granted.”

https://twitter.com/TheSkeptical1/status/778229113664462849

My thoughts exactly. Meanwhile the conventional wisdom-which is usually wrong-has been awash with stories of the Trump Momentum.

But I agree with Skeptic. Last week’s numbers were very noisy.

Meanwhile many people couldn’t contain their glee. Howard Fineman can’t even wait to write her post election obituary so he did it yesterday.

I had a very sharp response to that one. The word ‘shameful’ came up a lot.

http://lastmenandovermen.blogspot.com/2016/09/if-donald-trump-wins-i-will-never.html

Then you have the Bernier or Busters like Billmon who love tightening polls so he can gloat, ‘You should have voted for Bernie.’

https://twitter.com/billmon1

Anyone who is doing this is objectively helping Donald Trump. If you do everything you can to get her elected now and she still loses, then maybe after we can debate the pros and cons of her candidacy. Not now.

Anyway, the Hillary haters might want to hold off the premature obits-as Fineman literally wrote.

#National NBCNews/SurveyMonkey tracking poll: Clinton 45 (+5) Trump 40 Johnson 10 Stein 4 H2H: Clinton 50 Trump 45.”

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/778178462834106373

These are likely voters, by the way.

“Hillary Clinton Regains Momentum Against Donald Trump: Poll.”

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/data-points/hillary-clinton-regains-momentum-against-donald-trump-poll-n650926

That’s impossible, Dilbert writer, Scott Adams, says Trump is a Master Persuader and Scott Adams is never wrong.

“Back on the campaign trail after being diagnosed with pneumonia and a subsequent break from campaigning, Hillary Clinton plugged her leaking lead against Donald Trump, according to this week’s NBC News|SurveyMonkeyWeekly Election Tracking Poll.”

“She now enjoys 50 percent support among likely voters and Trump has 45 percent support.”

Even in the notoriously pro Trump USC/LA poll we see a small move in HRC”s favor today.

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/778177217041993734

In my argument that maybe the Trump momentum is over I also cited favorability polls. In the Survey Monkey tracking poll, we see a big move her way in a week of 6 points.

She went from 39% favorable and 59% unfavorable to 43-57 respectively.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating

Obviously this is preliminary and we don’t want to get ahead of ourselves yet. But the Survey Monkey poll also backs up what a pollster on Twitter said yesterday.

In field with multiple polls. Prelim suggests not quite as bad for HRC as last week. Also, underlines volatility

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/777917928264073216

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