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Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Donald Trump Should not be Celebrating Over Georgia-6

He is claiming victory after the net GOP vote won by about one percent over the net Dem vote. This is in a race that Trump and the other GOP bigshots had to get involved in.

This is a race that Tom Price won by 28 points.

Trump himself had a very poor showing in 2016 after Romey won it by 24 points in 2012. He has ‘helped’ a 24 point margin become 1.5 in 2016.

Some of the media is also talking as if last night is a defeat for the Dems.

His chances of capturing the seat in a runoff, against a single opponent in a district that has been in GOP hands since 1979, are seen as much slimmer.–and-opportunity-for-democrats/2017/04/18/a2231a48-242f-11e7-b503-9d616bd5a305_story.html?

The idea that the GOP by winning cumulative by .8 points in a district they traditionally win by well over 20 points is strange.

And despite what Costas writes here, most of the polling analyst types don’t see the runoff as a GOP slam dunk but a tossup.

This is what Nate Silver said yesterday morning:

“Apply these principles to the Georgia 6 race, and you’ll conclude that Tuesday night’s first round won’t actually resolve that much — unless Ossoff hits 50 percent of the vote and averts the runoff entirely. (That’s an unlikely but hardly impossible scenario given the fairly high error margins of polls under these circumstances.) Even if Ossoff finishes in the low 40s, it will be hard to rule him out in the second round provided that he still finishes in first place by a comfortable margin. But even if Ossoff finishes just a point or two shy of 50 percent, and Democrats finish with more votes than Republicans overall,3 he won’t have any guarantees in the runoff given that it’s a Republican-leaning district and that the GOP will have a chance to regroup. With the runoff not scheduled until June 20, there will be lots of time for speculation about what the first round meant — and a lot of it will be hot air.”

“As I mentioned, the relative presidential margin is Republican +10 in the district. And Republicans project to win the aggregate party margin by 3 points on Tuesday. But Ossoff projects to win the top-two margin by 28 points. Apply the formula, and it shows a photo-finish for the runoff, with the Republican projected to win by 1 percentage point — effectively a toss-up given the formula’s high margin of error.8

Last night had exactly the scenario Silver presumed-Osoff finishes short of 50-but just short-with a 28 point margin over GOP leader Karen Handel. This adds up to a tossup with maybe Ossoff being a slight favorite.

“We’re almost getting to the point where this has turned into (gulp) a model rather than just a quick-and-dirty way to take the pulse of the race. And if this were a full-fledged model, there are a couple of other things we’d want to consider. For one thing, it’s probably safe to conclude that we’re in a somewhat Democratic-leaning environment right now, given Trump’s poor approval ratings, a modest Democratic advantage on the generic congressional ballot and the results of last week’s special election in Kansas. That should mitigate some of Georgia 6’s Republican lean. For another thing, a couple of polls, such as this one, have tested prospective runoff matchups, and they’ve usually shown Ossoff a percentage point or two ahead of Handel and other Republicans. It’s not much of a “lead,” but it suggests that a runoff might at least be a toss-up for him.”

Again, this is in a historically very GOP district.

Here is what another polling analyst-Sean Trende said yesterday morning:

“Setting that aside, Democrats have two basic paths to control of the House in 2018 – it isn’t an “either-or” option in reality, but it can crystallize our thinking. The first runs through rural areas, where disillusionment with the Trump administration could lead rural voters to turn to Democrats embracing populist themes. This is basically what we saw attempted in the Kansas special election.”

“The other option involves convincing traditionally suburban Republicans who were skeptical of Trump to vote for Democrats. That is exactly what we’re seeing here; Democrats are trying to make the district’s voting at the presidential level resemble voting at the congressional level.”

“With that in mind, I’ve set the following mental benchmarks: An outright Ossoff win would be a dire portent for Republicans. While we again shouldn’t over-interpret special elections, if Democrats are able to make the anti-Trump vote stick in suburban districts, a lot of seats that we didn’t think were competitive would have to be placed on our radar screen.”

“On the other hand, if a well-funded Democrat like Ossoff can’t break 40 percent in an open race against a fractured Republican field, it would be a signal that Trump’s job approval won’t be transferred to Congress easily.”

“In the middle is a sort of sliding scale in my mind: The better Ossoff performs, the greater the threat to Republicans. Of course, we have to keep in mind Ossoff’s funding and the broad Republican field, but around 45 percent is where I think Republicans probably need to start being concerned.”

So Trende was saying yesterday morning, that 45 percent is where GOPers should start getting concerned. Ossoff got 48%.

P.S. As we saw in my poll out last week, the long awaited poll results are in, and right now I’m just 11 points down vs. Peter King (GOP-NY-District 2). And the voters don’t even know who I am yet.

There is nothing more important in getting answers to Trump-Russia collusion than a Democratic House in 2019. Please donate to help me in my part of the effort to fight for a Dem House.

Thank you. We must have a Dem House. And so, we will.

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