Wow. Some pundits make it sound like the Democrats lost last night and of course Trump is taking credit for a 50.59-49.41 edge that only sends it to a runoff. But as Sean Trende says this is not good news for Republicans.
“Ossoff will have a reasonable chance of winning in June. So Ossoff is going to end this first voting stage with (a) an awful lot of money, (b) momentum and (c) a combined Democratic vote share that is right at 49 percent. For him to take the district, all it would take is a slightly increased Democratic tailwind combined with some sour grapes from Republican supporters of unsuccessful primary candidates.”
“This is not a great result for Republicans. Moral victories are a myth, but they can tell us things about other, similarly situated contests. It’s the reason the NCAA selection committee takes strength of schedule into account when seeding postseason tournaments. All other things being equal, Republicans weren’t neutral on the outcome here. They would have preferred that Ossoff wind up in the low 40s or even the 30s, instead of taking them to the wire. This district is, at its core, a Republican one, which a Republican should have won easily. As I put it Tuesday, there was a continuum of concern among Republicans from hardly any at all if Ossoff won 40 percent of the vote to panic if he won the district outright, with genuine concern starting in at around 45 percent. I still think that’s correct, and this outcome was closer to panic than “meh.”
Tea Partier Joe Walsh warned on Stephanie Ruhle this morning its’a wakeup call to GOP. How big? This big.
— Scott Dworkin (@funder) April 19, 2017
I’m truly stunned myself it’s this fast. And honestly, beating him would have been fun. Not for him though.
Chaffetz decides not to seek re-election as Jail Time would interfere with campaigning. https://t.co/zA8wLfoJ5u
— MikeFarb (@mikefarb1) April 19, 2017
That’s the other side of it. Chaffetz may well be part of FBI investigation.
“For months, onlookers have wondered why House Oversight Committee Chairman Jason Chaffetz has done his best to protect Donald Trump from his Russian collusion scandal. Has it been merely partisan hackery, or has Chaffetz had a more specific reason? According to an intel community source, the FBI has learned that Russia has “kompromat” blackmail material on Chaffetz and has been using it to keep him in line with regard to Trump’s Russia scandal.”
“Now comes the question of just what the FBI will do with the apparent knowledge that Jason Chaffetz, a sitting Congressman, is a traitor acting on behalf of Russia. Will Chaffetz eventually end up among the arrests?”
Between that and Ossoff’s night, Chaffetz reportedly has enough incentive to retire. Meanwhile, his female novice opponent has raised huge amounts of cash. She’ll be in very good position in 2018.
P.S. As we saw in my poll out last week, the long awaited poll results are in, and right now I’m just 11 points down vs. Peter King (GOP-NY-District 2). And the voters don’t even know who I am yet.
There is nothing more important in getting answers to Trump-Russia collusion than a Democratic House in 2019. Please donate to help me in my part of the effort to fight for a Dem House.
Thank you. We must have a Dem House. And so, we will.