The Big Loser in Gianforte’s Win: TrumpCare
Ok, caveats first. Yes, the Dems wish they won, though to lose by just six points in Montana of all places is a decent result. Nate Silver:
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 26, 2017
It seems to me it is still in line with the larger narrative from the special elections so far: they’re going the Dems way.
“2018 is beginning to look like a very good year for Democrats.”
“Conditions are right for a major Democratic wave to sweep out the House Republican majority next fall, according to Nathan Gonzales, who runs the “Inside Elections” campaign tipsheet.”
“Gonzalez isn’t alone in seeing the possible formation of a Democratic wave out in the ocean. Earlier this month, Charlie Cook, the best known of the political handicappers (and my former boss!) wrote this of the coming election: “Obviously, no one knows what is going to happen in next year’s midterm elections, but analysts who have watched congressional elections for a long time are seeing signs that 2018 could be a wave election that flips control of the House to Democrats.”
Sure. So far we’ve seen this in Kansas-where it was a pretty close race in a very red state and district. We saw Dems win two special elections on Tuesday night in places they’ve never won before.
So yes, Dems would have liked a win but this is still a fairly good result. Some argue the DCCC should have done more.
Maybe they could/should have. However, what’s interesting is that Bernie wants it both ways: he criticizes the Dems for raising money and then for not using the money they raised on his chosen candidates.
Also this notable fact by Matt McDermott:
These Dems are raising huge (seriously massive) sums of money from small donors, only to be buried by insane super PAC spending by GOP.
— Matt McDermott (@mattmfm) May 26, 2017
This is why it’s a mistake for Dems to take pledges to raise to accept no ‘corporate donations.’ We need to get back into power and even then getting rid of Citizen’s United may take time-TK a lot Berners who said HRC was lesser of two evils. If she had won there’d be a liberal court now.
But you can’t unilaterally disarm in a world of nuclear powers.
Then there’s Gianforte’s win. Ok, he won and I guess GOPers are gloating. Says everything you need to know about them that they are fine with this behavior so long as they still win.
How to get a seat in Congress:
1. Move to Montana
2. Say you're "Christian"
3. Talk about gun rights
4. Bodyslam a reporter
— ? #FireHannity ? (@williamlegate) May 26, 2017
And Gianforte’s victory speech was rather awkward: whoever heard of an apology in a victory speech?
Hunch: Gianforte is gonna eat a plea deal soon. Hard to argue innocence of assault in court if you've been out on TV apologizing.
— Matt Pearce (@mattdpearce) May 26, 2017
Dems point out: ‘Ok he won, but he could go to jail.’
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) May 26, 2017
But the big loser is actually: TrumpCare. Think about it:
Nobody cares anymore, but Gianforte indeed got through the election w/o taking an AHCA stance — except to donors, to whom he said “yes."
— Dave Weigel (@daveweigel) May 26, 2017
Sure, he got away with it by not talking about it. But he didn’t accomplish this without first assaulting a reporter asking him about the CBO score. We knew the GOP hated the CBO score but who knew this much?
But the implication is that simply asking a GOPer about his position on healthcare is seen as offensive enough to excuse physical assault in response. This doesn’t exactly say anything good about TrumpCare that candidates will do anything to avoid the subject and if pressed will engage in aggravated assault.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) May 26, 2017
And that the only way to win while supporting TrumpCare is to never once breathe in public that you do-on pain of aggravated assault-speaks volumes about the popularity of ObamaCare repeal.
And as it happens the GOP Senate led by Mitch McConnell is very pessimistic about getting to 50.
“Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) on Wednesday said he doesn’t know how Republicans will muster enough votes to get their bill repealing and replacing Obamacare through the Senate.”
“I don’t know how we get to 50 at the moment,” McConnell said in an interview with Reuters. “But that’s the goal.”
He said there was “not a whole lot of news to be made on health care” and did not offer a timetable for passage of the Republican health care bill.
“McConnell told Reuters that tax legislation would be less “challenging” to get through Congress than the legislation to repeal Obamacare, and said he does not plan to work with congressional Democrats to advance his legislative agenda.”
Meanwhile, GOP Senators have put McConnell on notice: if they take hell from constituents on healthcare during recess, they’re out.
INTEL: Several GOP Senators have privately said this recess is the test – if they get blowback at home, they'll tell McConnell it's over.
— Topher Spiro (@TopherSpiro) May 25, 2017
“Senators reported that they’ve made little progress on the party’s most intractable problems this week, such as how to scale back Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion and overall Medicaid spending. Republicans are near agreement on making tax credits for low-income, elderly Americans more generous, but that might be the simplest matter at hand.”
“We talk about it every goddamn day,” said one GOP senator, who did not want to be quoted criticizing his own party. “But we haven’t done anything about it.””Senators privately reported being surprised by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s assessment on Wednesday that he doesn’t know how the party gets the requisite 50 of the party’s 52 members on board. Though aides said McConnell was restating the challenge of passing a bill in a sharply divided conference, senators said they also did not take the calculating majority leader’s words as a vote of confidence.”
“He doesn’t do much that’s not purposeful. So is he sending a message here of: ‘Don’t anybody think this is likely to happen?’” said a second Republican senator. “If I had to bet my house, I’d bet we don’t get it done.”
If I had to bet my house, I bet we don’t get this done.
So yes, nominally speaking Gianforte won and the GOP gets another Republican Congressman. But Gianforte is going to be nothing but an embarrassment going forward after what his violent meltdown.
And the real loser was the GOP plan to kill ObamaCare which is so unpopular Republicans will do anything to avoid a discussion over it even aggravated assault the night before an election.
P.S. As we saw in my poll out last week, the long awaited poll results are in, and right now I’m just 11 points down vs. Peter King (GOP-NY-District 2). And the voters don’t even know who I am yet.
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