We are all Believers in the Comey Effect Now
It’s funny but before Trump fired James Comey, the Trumpsters, GOPers, and MSM pundits would mock liberal Democrats for talking about the Comey effect. Shadi Hamid called it a mere ‘extraneous effect.’
Sure-the ref being paid off is an extraneous event; what was decisive is the favored team made some bad substitutions and missed some key free throws.
Who cares if the FBI’s intervention into the election 11 days before the election changed the result? The big news was she didn’t campaign in Michigan and Wisconsin and didn’t have a sharp enough economic message.
Nate Silver has analyzed it and shown that it took at least 1-2 points off her final total-the higher estimate is 3 to 4 points. So no Comey letter and she wins with a margin between 3 to 6 points.
Then Nate Cohn wanted to outdo his fellow poll analyst named Nate and claimed that Hillary lost her lead entirely before the Comey letter. In fact, he seems to think once the Comey letter came out, her slide stopped.
This is why you can’t check intuition at the door when you’re doing data analysis.
But this was before the Comey firing. Now everyone believes in the Comey effect. Trump initially pretended that Comey’s-very real-unfair treatment of Hillary Clinton was why he fired Comey.
In today’s hearings Claude Taylor warns that the GOP will be focusing on the phony Loretta Lynch email they got from Russian hackers that was the basis of the Comey presser in July-remember no Comey press conference in July, no Comey letter in November.
Look for Republicans practice their "whataboutism" skills today. Hillary, Loretta Lynch. Double points for emails.
— Claude Taylor (@TrueFactsStated) June 8, 2017
Its' like we are all believers in the Comey effect now
— mike sax (@mikesaxny2) June 8, 2017
Now the anti Hillary school seems to be that ‘Sure the refs were paid off but a good candidate would have won anyway.’
Having said that, ironically those are actually good questions. Yes, the GOP will ask them for the wrong reasons. But it’s very true-what was done to her in that email probe is outrageous and without this chicanery she’d be POTUS today and we’d still be a respected country in the world who was still in the Paris Accord and no Neil Gorsuch on the SJC.
But the Bernie Bros weren’t ‘inspired enough.’
But it is good to know that we all believe in the Comey effect now. At the end of this year the DOJ’s IG will have its report on the way Comey and the FBI handled the email probe. That should have bombshell after bombshell in it too.
What we need to know is how much was the Comey letter also the result of more treachery by the Russian hackers?
A lot of shady things went into that letter and I strongly suspect there was a Russian hacker component in that too. In any case as Russian hackers were behind the Comey press conference they already indirectly caused the letter. But my guess is they also had a direct role.
P.S. As we saw in my poll out last week, the long awaited poll results are in, and right now I’m just 11 points down vs. Peter King (GOP-NY-District 2). And the voters don’t even know who I am yet.
There is nothing more important in getting answers to Trump-Russia collusion than a Democratic House in 2019. Please donate to help me in my part of the effort to fight for a Dem House.
Thank you. We must have a Dem House. And so, we will.