Theresa May and Her Party Just Win Shoot Ball in Own Goal Award
Wow. I mean yesterday was a great day with the Comey testimony and everything. How many times did Comey explicitly call Donald Trump a liar?
But while we were all watching Comey, the Brits had a little election, that actually has some huge consequences. Full disclosure-I was born in Britain and though we moved to the US when I was three I remain a dual citizen.
Why is it necessary for me to make a disclosure for this? I guess it isn’t…
But it’s amazing how quickly things can change. Three weeks ago May seemed headed to a landslide and Labor seemed dead. I had noted on Sunday that it’s a very bad sign for Ms. May in that there is song about her in Britain that is second in the charts called ‘Liar, Liar.’
In that post I’d argued that May may have already have lost her snap election even if she won it.
As it turned out, last night’s result was just about the worst result she could have imagined.
Just before the election Nate Silver had given the most likely possibilities:
,(1) Conservative landslide, (2) solid Tory win (5-9 points) and (3) hung parliament are each about equally likely. https://t.co/yk4mXBKqUm
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 8, 2017
The results are in and it’s very much door number 3. And she called this snap election after promising not to have one until 2020:
If this exit poll holds up, it will be one of the most infamous own goals in recent UK political history, self-inflicted doom for Tories.
— Jeff B back in black (@EsotericCD) June 8, 2017
The reason for that is the politics of Brexit have been treacherous. The EU is driving a hard bargain and it looked as if the worst of Brexit would be concurrent with the 2020 election.
Anyway where are we now? It appears she will form a coalition government.
“Theresa May reaches deal with DUP to form government after shock election result.”
“May expected to visit Queen to seek permission to form government after agreeing terms with Northern Ireland party”
As a Brit-but also an American-it’s amazing to me how the Brits never could agree to throw away the monarchy. That at least formally you still have to ask the Queen’s permission.
For a country with this kind of history of compromise, they sure do seem to be going for extremes lately.
Theresa May has struck a deal with the Democratic Unionists that will allow her to form a government, sources have confirmed.
The prime minister is expected to see the Queen at about 12.30pm on Friday to confirm that a deal is in place.
“It follows extensive talks with the DUP late into the night. Party figures say they have been driven on Friday morning by their dismay at the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister.”
“DUP figures insist their relationship with May’s team has been close since she became prime minister 11 months ago.”
Sure you have. Shotgun marriage.
A DUP source said: “We want there to be a government. We have worked well with May. The alternative is intolerable. For as long as Corbyn leads Labour, we will ensure there’s a Tory PM.”
“Not to get back into the Bernie Bro wars but some Bernie or Busters are saying this proves Bernie would have won. It actually doesn’t. And for the record, Corbyn himself hasn’t won. If you believe DUP, the reason they are helping May form a government is they revile Corbyn. So who knows-maybe Labour would have done even better with someone else leading the party-maybe they’d be in power now.”
That’s the counterfactual game for you.
“There has been no decision as yet on whether there will be a formal coalition between the Conservatives and the DUP or if they will operate on a “confidence and supply” arrangement – whereby the Unionists would support a minority government on vital matters in return for some of their policies being enacted.”
“There is no absolute majority, so no danger from the combined opposition,” a source said. It has been reported that the two parties do not believe it necessary to enter a formal coalition to govern.
“The DUP’s ‘price’ for propping up a new Tory government will include a promise that there would be no post-Brexit special status for Northern Ireland, the party’s leader in Westminster has confirmed.”
“Nigel Dodds, re-elected as North Belfast MP, said that among the DUP’s preconditions would be an insistence that there was no separate deal that would effectively keep the region with one foot still inside the EU.”
“The DUP fears that special status after Brexit – a key demand of Sinn Féin – would de-couple Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.”
“With one eye on the Brexit negotiations that begin within the next 10 to 11 days, Dodds said: “There are special circumstances in Northern Ireland and we will try to make sure these are recognised. As regards demands for special status within the European Union, no. Because that would create tariffs and barriers between Northern Ireland and our single biggest market, which is the rest of the United Kingdom.”
“While we will focus on the special circumstances, geography and certain industries of Northern Ireland we will be pressing that home very strongly. Special status, however, within the European Union is a nonsense. Dublin doesn’t support it. Brussels doesn’t support it. The member states of the EU would never dream of it because it would open the door to a Pandora’s box of independence movements of all sorts. The only people who mentioned this are Sinn Féin.”
“The DUP backed Brexit in last year’s EU referendum campaign and regards as sacrosanct the overall UK decision to leave”.
“Sinn Féin have argued that because the Northern Ireland electorate voted by 56% to remain within Europe last year and that the region will be the only one with a post-Brexit land border with the EU, the area should have special designated status.”
So this deal that DUP is making won’t please other parties in Ireland-starting with Sinn Fein.
There are different ways to interpret the results. What do they mean for Brexit? Was this just about May’s personal failures?
The EU has some thoughts:
“Theresa May’s failed election gamble has hugely complicated Brexit talks for both London and Brussels, senior EU politicians warned after the shock UK poll result.”
“With Brexit talks due to start within days, European leaders fear that disarray in the UK over forming a government will further damage the country’s ability to agree on its exit strategy.”
“I hope the result of the elections will have no major impact on the negotiations we are desperately waiting for,” said Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission president. “I hope we will not experience any further delay in the conclusion of these negotiations.”
“Mr Oettinger, a German and a close ally of chancellor Angela Merkel, said the election result was no grounds for “schadenfreude . . . A weakened partner weakens the negotiations overall”.
He insisted that Brussels must not respond by altering its negotiating strategy and should remain “unchanged, fair and consistent” in its approach. Brussels had to continue representing the interests of the other 27 EU members, he said.
Konrad Szymanski, Poland’s Europe minister, told the Financial Times that after the election result, “it looks like the Brits are not sure about the way Brexit should be implemented”.
He added: “A deeply divided and possibly unstable parliament makes negotiations more unpredictable. It poses a risk for a smooth and balanced result we all need.”
“Pierre Moscovici, the EU’s commissioner for economic affairs, told Europe 1 radio station that Mrs May was “in a less simple situation” to negotiate Brexit.
“It wasn’t a second Brexit referendum but what is true is that Jeremy Corbyn has campaigned on a softer Brexit. It doesn’t question the idea of Brexit . . . Mrs May has lost her gamble, she’s in a less simple situation. But what will be the dynamics within the Tory party and within Labour? It’s more open . . . There will be an impact on the spirit of the negotiations,” Mr Moscovici said.
A less simple Brexit.
P.S. As we saw in my poll out last week, the long awaited poll results are in, and right now I’m just 11 points down vs. Peter King (GOP-NY-District 2). And the voters don’t even know who I am yet.
There is nothing more important in getting answers to Trump-Russia collusion than a Democratic House in 2019. Please donate to help me in my part of the effort to fight for a Dem House.
Thank you. We must have a Dem House. And so, we will.