New Morning Consult Shows Clear Comey Effect
James Comey. This man has so much to answer for. We must have hearings into his handling of the email scandal-right from the start: was there any probable cause to open the case in the first place?
We also need to compare and contrast the way he handled the email investigation with ‘extreme transparency’ and the Trump-Russia investigation which was very much on the down low.
Yes, the question of whether the Comey letter changed the election is unfalsifiable-there’s no way to prove that it did-or didn’t. I will point out that it’s a much more heroic assumption to insist that you know for a fact that the Comey Effect was so small it didn’t even change the votes of 1% of voters; after all, Trump won by only 77,000 votes in three swing states.
But Comey’s actions were indefensible and wrong wether you believe his letter changed the result or you don’t believe it. After all if it did then that’s a travesty that the FBI director decided who the President is. But if Trump would have won by his tiny 77,000 vote margin with or without the Comey letter that’s just as appalling a result.
Then Trump will always have an asterisk next to an election he would have won either way.
Meanwhile, 60% of voters who had an unfavorable view of both Trump and Clinton voted for Trump. Many of the late deciding voters-who went very largely for Trump over the last week after the Comey letter-were Republican leaning voters who didn’t like Trump but wanted an excuse to vote Republican.
Jonathan Chait had this great coinage: a large part of the normalization of Trump came from the ‘abnormalization’ of Hillary. These late deciding Trump voters needed to convince themselves that Hillary was just as bad or even worse.
@PhilipRucker of those who saw Clinton & Trump unfavorably, ~60% broke for Trump. Lot of Iowans voted for him, but didn't—and don't—approve.
— Zach Wahls (@ZachWahls) February 15, 2017
A new Morning Consult poll shows the Comey Effect in action.
“Asked for whom they would vote if the 2020 election were held today, 43 percent say they would likely vote for the Democrat, while only 35 percent say they would support a second Trump term. Twenty-three percent are undecided.”
“Eighty-seven percent of voters who say they supported Hillary Clinton in last fall’s election would vote for the Democrat, while only 71 percent of Trump voters say they are likely to support him again. Independents break away from the president by 10 percentage points.”
Ok so Clinton got 66 million votes and Trump 63 million. If she got 87% of those today and Trump got 71% this gives her 59 million votes to his 44 million.
This gives us an idea of what the electorate might have looked like on election day without the Comey Effect.
It can’t be said enough.
Comey decision to release info on go-nowhere Clinton investigation and to sit on this massive scandal looks monstrously worse daily.
— David Rothkopf (@djrothkopf) February 15, 2017
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