The Great Negotiator Lacks the Votes to Pass His Healthcare Bill
We’ve heard lots of big talk like last Friday when he claimed to have turned all these ‘No’s into yes’s.
We heard yesterday that he has warned GOPers that they’re in big trouble if they don’t pass this in 2018.
“I honestly think many of you will lose your seats in 2018 if you don’t get this done,” Trump warned House Republicans on Tuesday.
“One senior administration official said what the president was suggesting was “not revenge” — just simply political “reality.” But the combination of Trump’s history of score-settling, his offhand remark at Tuesday’s conference and the significance of the looming vote has created an undercurrent of fear of retribution in the House.”
Of course, it’s not really clear which way this breaks based on 2018. Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie:
275 oppose vs 4 support #ObamaCareLite. Phone calls to my office from constituents over last two weeks. Why are we voting on this?
— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) March 21, 2017
And the polls don’t show Trumpcare as very popular.
“Support for the GOP proposal to repeal and replace the 2010 health care law is fading, according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted just before an expected House vote on the legislation.”
“Voters are rankled by the House GOP’s compressed timeline. A 43 percent plurality say congressional Republicans “are moving too fast and need to take more time to examine other proposals.” Only 18 percent say “health care reform needs to be passed as soon as possible,” and 17 percent think Republicans “are going about the right speed on health care reform.”
“The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll continues to show approval of the bill is narrowly greater than disapproval, but other surveys show far more respondents oppose the legislation than support it. Unlike the other polls, the POLITICO/Morning Consult survey does not identify the new proposal as a Republican effort.”
Trump’s own recent dive in popularity correlates closely with the introduction of Trumpcare. So while it’s true that each GOPer will ultimately look to 2018, the numbers may lead them to be more likely to approve it than otherwise.
I was watching CNBC where the Trump loving pundits are still talking optimistically about Trumpcare passing on Thursday. Maybe they know something others don’t. But right now they don’t seem to have the votes.
“Trump, GOP leaders lack votes to pass Obamacare repeal.”
“With less than 48 hours to go before a vote, the president and senior House Republicans are scrambling to corral wayward members.”
“Despite a frantic lobbying effort, President Donald Trump and House GOP leaders are still short of the votes they need to pass their Obamacare replacement bill, just two days before the legislation is set to be taken up on the floor.”
“Conservative hard-liners from the House Freedom Caucus are threatening to derail the legislation, saying revisions announced on Monday night don’t go far enough. A handful of moderate Republicans are also balking at the Trump-backed measure. They’re worried about damaging themselves politically by voting for a proposal that will never make it through the Senate.”
That’s the other side of it. Why put yourself on the record for voting for something that won’t pass the Senate?
“Maybe the best outcome is for this to fail in the House so we can move on to tax reform. Which is what we should have done anyway,” said one Republican senator, granted anonymity to make a frank assessment of the party’s political predicament.
Indeed, based on the trouble Trump and Ryan are having even passing it in the House, Nancy Pelosi and the Dems are taking a more stand back attitude. They figure stay out of this inter party scrum and watch it get shot down.
“House Democrats’ new Obamacare strategy: Get out of the way.”
“Republicans now are dealing with the fact that they’ve built a castle on a foundation of lies,” Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.), who chairs the moderate New Democrat Coalition in the House, said in an interview. “The last thing we would want to do is get in their way.”
This is very smart. After all, if this is going to be defeated it will be by Republican votes. Democrats can just sit back a little and pass the popcorn.
P.S. As we saw in my poll out last week, the long awaited poll results are in, and right now I’m just 11 points down vs. Peter King (GOP-NY-District 2). And the voters don’t even know who I am yet.
There is nothing more important in getting answers to Trump-Russia collusion than a Democratic House in 2019. Please donate to help me in my part of the effort to fight for a Dem House.
Thank you. We must have a Dem House. And so, we will.