In 5 Special Elections Dems Have Outperformed Districts ‘Partisan Makeup’ by an Average of 8 Points
We touched on this point yesterday, but it deserves a lot of emphasis as some are pushing the panic button.
Some are opportunistically trying to use the disappointment of the loss on-yep, Nancy Pelosi. What else is new? These folks already had it in for her, however, And what is her culpability here? Because Handel mentioned her name a lot.
“Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio), who unsuccessfully challenged Pelosi in House leadership elections held after the November election, said that even talented candidates cannot overcome “the toxicity of the national Democratic brand.”
“It makes it a heck of a lot harder,” he said of Pelosi’s prominent place in GOP ads. “That approach still has a little bit of punch to it. It still moves voters.”
“Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund, a Republican super PAC that spent $7 million on the Georgia race, agreed.”
“I don’t know what we’d do without Pelosi,” he said Wednesday. “I hope she never retires. Another Democratic leader would not start with that level of name recognition.”
Please. Are Democrats really this pitiful they’re going to take advice from the GOP? I’m sure Mr. ‘Bliss’ has no blissfully opportunistic reasons for saying this. I’m sure he’s only going to make totally candid statements when he ‘advises’ Democrats.
As for Tim Ryan, he’s a biased voice as he wants the job. I guess the most plausible argument is simply because of her name recognition she’s a drag on the party. But I’m skeptical. I’ve followed GOP politics long enough to know they will always go with character assassination. This is the same mistake Hillary bashers on the Left make.
Because of the way they’ve attacked her, they presume the GOP would be nice to a different Dem candidate. But for those who remember Gore, Kerry and any number of other races, know this is always GOP boilerplate: eeeeeevil coastal elites.
It also offends me personally as I despise the notion that we have to give credence to their character assassination. I mean they talk about Pelosi as if she, you know, coordinated with the Russians, or wrote a healthcare bill to take away Medicaid from 14 million people or something, or maybe punched out a reporter for asking about this said healthcare bill.
Peter Daou gets it right:
Clinton, Pelosi, Harris, Warren, Waters… attacked by left and right. I'm struggling to figure out what they have in common. Any ideas?
— Peter Daou (@peterdaou) June 22, 2017
If Hillary and Pelosi have been vilified to the point of being a perceived liability, fight the vilification, not them.
— Peter Daou (@peterdaou) June 21, 2017
I agree. That’s why I explained yesterday that if in running against Peter King as a first time candidate he wants to tie me to Pelosi-and he probably will-then I won’t agree that she’s this devil I have to distance myself from.
1. Congressman King is engaging in the usual ad hominem and baseless attacks. I don't even know Nancy Pelosi as I'm new-tho I'd be happy to
— mike sax (@evilsax) June 21, 2017
3. My take-if someone attacks you and you agree with them, it weakens you and strengthens them
— mike sax (@evilsax) June 21, 2017
For me, I don’t like this idea that rather than stand up to a bully, you try to placate him: ‘You’re right, Nancy Pelosi stinks. Get out of here Pelosi!’
As for a context to the loss itself, it actually should be good news, overall-along with Dem performance in SC, Kansas, and Montana.
“It’s a devastating psychological blow for a party to spend over $30 million on a House special election and still lose. For Democrats, Jon Ossoff’s defeat to Karen Handel stings, and the blame game is already raging: “Why did Ossoff run such a bland campaign? Why didn’t he take a sledgehammer to Trump and the AHCA? Don’t Democrats need to recruit little league coaches with deeper ties to their communities?”
“This kind of second-guessing is a bit misguided. Last night’s results were far from a disaster for Democrats, and Republicans shouldn’t be tempted to believe their House majority is safe. In fact, their majority is still very much at risk.”
As for Parnell, Wasserman argues that the lack of national attention may have helped not hindered him:
“First and foremost, just one state over, unheralded Democratic tax expert Archie Parnell – who ran on a similarly conciliatory, post-partisan message but generated a tiny fraction of the hype Ossoff did—shockingly came within three points of Republican Ralph Norman in a district President Trump carried by 18 points last November (Ossoff came within four points in a district Trump carried by one). ”
“Parnell’s near-miss has prompted outrage from activists on the left who believe he got short shrift from the DNC, DCCC and party hierarchy. If only the DCCC had parachuted into Sumter instead of Atlanta, the thinking goes, Democrats might have actually gained a House seat by now. But the reality is Parnell—much like Democrat James Thompson in KS-04—outperformed polls and expectations precisely because the race flew under the radar, not despite it.”
This is the point the Democrats had made about KS-o4: they’re presence may have hurt Thompson as the national party is very unpopular in Kansas. The Bernie Bro criticism that the national Dems don’t support ‘their candidates’ enough is ironic. If the national Dems are as bad as they say, why do they want/need their support?
But the important takeaway for Democrats is: come in off the ledge. The Dems are actually doing very well:
“If Democrats were to outperform their “generic” share by eight points across the board in November 2018, they would pick up 80 seats. Of course, that won’t happen because Republican incumbents will be tougher to dislodge than special election nominees. But these results fit a pattern that should still worry GOP incumbents everywhere, regardless of Trump’s national approval rating and the outcome of the healthcare debate in Congress.”
Let’s stop the bedwetting and forget about Pelosi and focus on winning in 2018.
And remember you’re humble blogger is running for NY 2. Today Gravis Marketing tells me the press release on my recent poll vs. King is coming out.
P.S. So the Gravis poll against Peter King NY2 and it has good news-almost too good to believe.
In my March poll I trailed King by 11 and thought that was very good news. Now Gravis has me up by 10? Still, the moment of truth is next week when Gravis writes up the press release.
I can use any help I can get at this point-volunteers or supporters who live in NY 2. Donations whatever your zip code. These days we can’t just support a local Dem we need a Dem Congress. Which is why I’ve donated few hundred to Jon Ossoff.
Please donate to help me in my part of the effort to fight for a Dem House-$5 or $10 can do so much.
If you feel that you can’t I, of course, understand-who is rich these days? But please do me one favor: ask yourself privately, mentally, if you really can’t spare $5 dollars. If you can honestly say you can’t, no worries.
We can have a Dem Congress, we must have a Dem Cogress, and we will.
Thank you. We must have a Dem House. And so, we will.